Africa: 2014

Militant Islam in Africa: Where next for militant/ extremist Islam in Africa?  We have seen the rise of Al-Shabab in Somalia – with leakage of ideology and terrorism into Kenya (such as the shopping mall attack in Nairobi) – as well as a more political Islamism in Egypt (with the Muslim Brotherhood), many decades of Islamic-influenced attacks in the North of Africa (eg. Algeria) and the resurgence of post-Gadhafi Islamic groups in Libya more recently. The Maghreb/ Sohail (generally covering the central/ desert area of mid-North Africa) has its own Al-Qaida franchise (Al-Qaida in the Maghreb) and, to the west, Nigeria has seen Boko Haram develop to the point of becoming a self-declared IS/ISIL/ ISIS franchise.

Therefore, in general, it would not be too sweeping to say that militant/ extreme Islamic groups – as outlined above – have made significant inroads into many parts of the northern, eastern and (much of) western areas of the upper part/ north of the African continent. Not surprising, perhaps, given the closer geographical proximity (for the north and east, at least) to the Middle East.

So, looking at the middle third and south of Africa – what risks are there for countries in these sections of the continent?

Examining the south initially: the attractions of South Africa – a magnet for migrants throughout the whole of Africa – might suggest that the country would be a popular target for militant Islamists. It is more likely, however, that rather than a wholesale threat (as seen in Nigeria and Somalia) any activity would (at least initially) involve terrorist attacks – along the lines of those seen in Kenya – against ‘high value’ targets where large areas of the population congregate (shopping malls, markets, etc).. While the relative sophistication of the South African security forces would be likely to prevent the development of a large/ growing threat, as with other westernised countries the isolated activity of small cell-like groups is the more dominant risk.

Moving north from South Africa, the closer to the middle region of the continent the more likely that a geographic spread would develop. Already there have been reports of activity in Cameroon – along the coast to the south of Nigeria – and that would also indicate countries with a former French colonial past (such as Mali) maybe at a heightened risk. Central Africa – the Congo/ DRC, Rwanda for example – has seen internal conflicts that have had partial sectarian divisions, but the militant/ extremist versions of Islam, described earlier, have not as yet taken hold.

In summary, the spread of militant / extremist Islam is a real and growing threat in Africa. For the ‘West’ to be drawn into increasing counter-insurgency operations, with or without local allies in Africa, would lead to so-called “mission creep” and could draw a much longer and potentially more durable fight into a regional/ continental conflict.                                   [6 January 2015]

• Unifying Africa? : Looking at the vast African continent, with its variations in people, land, culture and politics, a challenge in the future could be to find a way to unify or unite the continent (or, at least to start, parts of it).

  Why consider this?  In very broad generalisation, a single and (more or less) unified body politic/ land mass/ country has a potentially better chance of developing – economically, socially and culturally – over time than a similar land mass which is made up of smaller constituent parts (or, to use a phrase: ‘bigger is better’).. In other words, the ‘whole is better than the sum of its parts’. Now that is contentious in itself and, without debating that concept, for the sake of this argument it is given – although it does stand at the heart of the matter. If we accept the argument (in economics it would parallel the concept of Economies of Scale – ie. better outcomes/ lower costs with a larger unit of production than lots of smaller ones) then the next step is to analyse how it can be achieved.

  The European Union (EU) is on that journey to translate many smaller countries, with their variations in laws, culture and individual idiosyncrasies, into a single (or reduced number of) institution[s]. The USA has already had many decades of federalism reflected, outwardly, as a single nation state. The USSR tried to create a single political bloc, made up of various constituent parts, but ultimately failed. Russia remains as a single country – as does China – but there are few other attempts at creating a federation, confederation or amalgamation of states.

  So, could such a concept work in Africa?  The African Union (AU) is an attempt to bring together nations and cooperate in roles such as peacekeeping, but a federation of countries would be a further step forward. Certainly, there are alliances – or nations with common interest at least (perhaps South Africa and Namibia, or Nigeria and some of its west African neighbours) but the likelihood of an EU style (least of all US) structural interconnectivity is many years away.

  The greatest opportunity is for regional alliances to – formally or informally – develop but the downside is the heightened risk of warfare between those alliances (eg. resource rich versus resource poor) whereas, at the moment, smaller scale conflict is on the country, or sub-country (cross border) level. A unified Africa is a long way off.                             [30 November 2014]

• Nigeria and Libya: Both Nigeria and Libya are returning to media attention, of late, the former with the proclamation by Boko Haram of a ‘Nigerian Caliphate’ and in Libya with further rounds of instability and attacks taking place sub-regionally.

   

  Nigeria’s Boko Haram (loosely meaning “Western education is forbidden”) came to prominence earlier this year when a number of Nigerian girls were kidnapped by the group. The Nigerian state has subsequently fought back against the movement – while, no doubt, discussions are taking place with a view to rescuing or ransoming the children. By announcing a “Caliphate”, Boko Haram are overtly tying their colours to the mast of IS/ ISIS/ ISIL and will be looking for similar regional blocks to develop in North Africa (ie. Somailian’ Al-Shabaab, potentially sympathetic groups in Libya and in Kenya and elsewhere).

   

  Libya meanwhile is continuing to suffer the effects of the fall of Gadhafi and power struggles that followed afterwards. A generalised east/ west geographic split developed in the country, post-Gadhafi, and an upsurge in violence led to an attack on the US Embassy (when the Ambassador was killed) and a withdrawal from the country by Western diplomats. Now, again, fighting is escalating.. It would unlikely for NATO/ Western countries to involve themselves again (as they have in Iraq, for example) – but, in the wider view of what is happening in the Middle East (ie. Syria and Iraq) as well as political tensions in Egypt and Israel/ Gaza, it would be wise to view Libya in the regional context and see what is happening there not only as an internal dynamic but – as with the Arab Spring – as an element of the structural changes occurring in the region. [6 Oct 14]