Global Conflicts: 2014

Homeland Security: What is becoming increasingly clear, in a more volatile world, is the need to maintain more secure borders and better intelligence on who is coming in and leaving a nation state. In terms of those leaving – using Europe as an example – the security services in the countries constituting the European Community are no doubt vigilant about those leaving to go to conflict zones in the Middle East, although the powers to limit travel based on suspicions of the potential for extremist activity are slight given the risks of charges of unfair/ illegal detention (and also the risks of alerting those under suspicion that they are on a watch list). Of course, with indirect flights and other methods, there are not usually such clear indicators of intent.

Perhaps the more pertinent issue is that of border security for those returning – directly or indirectly – from conflict zones. Certainly the ‘lone wolf’, perhaps with no previous reason to raise an alert, is very difficult to spot and advance intelligence is negligible if at all. However, where there are any ‘flags’ alerting border security or internal services to the fact that someone of interest is looking to gain entry (or re-entry, if already a citizen), then now more than ever resources should be channelled to greater surveillance and proactive policing of borders.. The introduction of pre-vetting, on airlines, subsequent to the 9/11 attacks in America focused the minds of law enforcement – but there is still a high risk that home-grown or imported terrorists will continue to seek to bring the war to domestic states. Of all the competing funding requirements, suffered by a state to maintain itself, this must be one of the highest priority areas. Whereas, in the past, it might have been sufficient to keep margins low by (for example) checking a percentage of those returning – now quality must take precedence, by which resource must be made available to ensure that all potential and actual assessments of risk are properly and thoroughly examined and carried out. An absolutist mentality must prevail.

Lastly, this threat will be generational – perhaps multi-generational. Unfortunately, there are likely to be no ‘formal’ cessation of hostilities, no agreements nor treaties to indicate an end rather, perhaps, an ongoing reduction in the threat level will be indicative of the status quo at the time.                                                                                                                        [6 January 2015]

• Mercury rising : If IS/ ISIS/ ISIL are to be effectively degraded and ultimately prevented from operating as a fighting force then ‘boots on the ground’ (ie. a land war) would be inevitable. Why would this be the case? From a military standpoint, as effective as air strikes may be, there are certain limitations which only a fighting force on the ground could remedy. While air strikes may destroy facilities, ammunition, supply lines and fighters the effectiveness is limited to medium-to-large and mainly static (hence targetable) opposition. For the weapons destroyed and militia killed in a strike there will be the minority of fighters who will not be in the area or who are in ones or twos that can carry on to fight another day. For want of a better phrase, a “mopping up “ operation – conducted by land forces – is the most sure way of upping the efficacy of a pure air operation alone.. Without eyes on the ground (and, crucially, personnel and weapons in the immediate or near theatre) then an air war alone would increase the duration of any combat operations and, crucially, run the risk that a significant proportion of the enemy will survive to fight again. This also has implications for morale – knowing that a job is only half (or other fraction less than the full amount) done and that this is repeatedly occurring, effects the morale of the soldier/ pilot / ground crew tasked with achieving the objective.

  To provide a rather crude analogy: if mercury – a liquid like substance that pools together but can be subdivided – is spilt then using a single (but mostly effective) tool to mop it up may collect much of it but, without carefully closing it in from all sides, there is a risk that some may escape or spill out having not been captured by the process.                                                [30 November 2014]

• Which matters most? : From a “Western” perspective, looking in a generally geographically eastern/ south-eastern direction, there are three conflicts occurring at the moment that are of particular interest. The hot/ cold war in Ukraine, the ongoing Syrian crisis & the increasing presence of Islamic State/ ISIS/ ISIL in Iraq (and Syria). We have not included Israel/ Gaza as, while it is certainly of great significance, we do not see recent hostilities continuing (to the same degree, in the short/ medium term) in as much as the previous three are likely to (in the longer term).

  Briefly examining each in turn; Ukraine – the internal conflict between the Government of the country and separatists, drawing in external States/ organisations (Russia, NATO, the US, EU, etc), Syria – the continuing war, of many years duration, which has received less coverage recently, but is nevertheless continuing without foreseeable end and, lastly, IS/ ISIS/ ISIL – the burgeoning self-proclaimed ‘caliphate’, which threatens the stability of Iraq and the wider region.

  In the purely geo-political sense, most immediate attention is with IS/ ISIS/ ISIL. Although the Syria and Ukraine crises are of vast importance they are – at the moment – contained within their respective countries (albeit with third parties internally and also on the borders of each).. The wider threat from IS/ ISIS/ ISIL is; to the stability of Iraq as a unified country, the risk of drawing in other agencies/ countries to the region and hence a wider conflict occurring in Iraq (and surrounding area), to the Sunni/ Shia balance of power in the region and also to the ‘cultural’ significance of having a non-State group being able to signal to the wider world a practical demonstration of Extremist/ Radical philosophy.

   

  It may be that Ukraine and Syria will, in the longer term, pose a more complex and durable dilemma to the West – but, in the meantime, IS/ISIS/ ISIL is the more immediate and substantial threat.                                                                                                                                [6 October 2014]