South-East Asia: 2014

Abe’s win in Japan: Prime Minister Abe’s win, in a snap election, has endorsed the continuation of his “Abenomics” programme. Perhaps not unsurprising as it is more or less the only game in town, with Japan throwing the economic towel at the continuing deflationary environment that it has seen for more or less two decades. Japan is perhaps an example of where some Western economies will develop towards – a low inflation, low (or negative) growth pattern which becomes part of the structural status quo. The ‘new normal’. With some parts of the Western growth model having reached their maximum and peaked, while others are adjusting to a gradual decline and transition away from market dominance to a more balanced or multi-variable structure, other regional growth story successes have developed – for example; the BRICs/ Developing economies in general, the oil-rich Middle Eastern states, countries such as Nigeria that are dominant in their region – that underpin the change from the dominant Western story of a few decades ago.

With Asian growth set to have an increasing impact – not least from China, but also countries such as India, in the near future – Japan’s role will be integral to maintaining the Western connection, that is if it can adapt to the changing environment and develop from its traditional methods of working practices and economics to a more nuanced system, maybe as the regional banker to the growing economic power houses of the region.. Either way, it must find a new role and way of maintaining its status in the region, or it will be superseded by others.                     [6 January 2015]

• The future for North Korea: What likely direction or directions will the People’s Republic of North Korea take in the short to medium term? With a relatively new leader (Kim Jong-Un) following the dynastic succession of his grandfather (Kim Il-Sun), the “Great Leader”, and Jong-Un’s father (Kim Jong-Il) the “Dear Leader” – the young dictator is likely (health and political machinations permitting) to have a reasonably long term as supreme leader of North Korea. Having ‘shored-up’ his powerbase (his Uncle being an early victim of Jong-Un’s displeasure) he has also recently brought in his sister to assist in the running of the country. This indicates – along with his Uncle’s demise – that power will be kept even closer to the direct bloodline. Close family, even if they seek to help the leader, can never be certain of their place however!

  So, where does Jong-Un and North Korea look – externally – for reinforcement and political ties? The obvious answer is China. While China has supported North Korea – politically (eg. at the UN) and economically – it has domestic issues of its own to concern itself with and propping up an unwieldy, anachronistic and increasingly globally backward-looking neighbour is less in its interest. While nominally they may share Communist ideals, China’s are numerous iterations ahead and evolving to such a degree that the notion of Chinese Communism may be itself extinct in a few generations. The idea of sustaining an insular and despotic regime may not be in China’s best interests in the medium to long term.

  Russia, a distant cousin, has had relations with North Korea but has issues of its own – viz. Europe, the West - as well as other areas of interest (eg. Syria and Ukraine) to concern itself with.

  North Korea will either have to engage more with the outside world – signs are increasing of this, with changes to policy tone and more connectivity externally – or turn inwards with the heightened risk of collapse and the dangers (inward and outward) that this would bring..  With global politics shifting to the Asia-Pacific region, the future of North Korea will become increasingly clear over the next few years.                                            [30 November 2014]

• Democracy – Hong Kong style: China has indicated that it is not happy (to put it mildly) with a potential Parliamentary investigation into the activities around impending elections in Hong Kong. The suggestion is that China, by ‘selecting’ which candidates can stand is framing the elections in Hong Kong to assist a preferred outcome. Since handover to China, the operating framework has been ‘one Country two systems’ – providing Hong Kong with a special status in the eyes of the Chinese Government.

  As a result, Hong Kong has grown-up since the transition with memory of the history of British governance, while China has provided the overriding structure for the ongoing political and economic system. To have general elections, at all, in Chinese territorial land, is significant and should be recognised as more than a passing nod to colonial history - yet it shouldn’t be surprising if Beijing puts its own spin on democracy.

   

  The changes that have – and are – taking place on the mainland are rapid (at the moment, mainly in the economic sphere) but politically, at some point, the reins may be loosened further.. Meanwhile, though Hong Kong may have been “ahead of the game” previously, in terms of its political system, it is being required to hold back while the mainland might ‘catch up’.

  Ultimately, the mainland is likely to develop its own system for increasing democratic representation among the vast population – but it is unlikely to fall neatly into the systems that have developed over many years in the UK and USA (for example).

  As such, while Hong Kong may be currently feeling it is taking a step or two backwards, in the political context, the long term political evolution in China may lead to a refined Chinese-style democracy that more reflects the development of this unique land.                     [6 october 2014]